Study on the Impact of AI Overviews on Click Decline in Google Search Console
Many webmasters have recently started to notice a rather alarming pattern in Google Search Console: clicks are declining while impressions are increasing. On the charts, it looks as if a website is appearing in search results more often, yet users are clicking through to pages less frequently. This discrepancy raises many questions — from technical issues to concerns about algorithm updates.
Here is a typical example of such a situation on a RegisTeam project, where the GSC graph clearly shows a decline in traffic alongside growing visibility.
A similar situation is observed on the second project of the RegisTeam SEO team: the same trend persists — impressions are increasing, but the number of clicks is steadily declining, which indicates a systemic issue rather than an isolated anomaly.
Over the past 12 months, Google search traffic has changed more drastically than in the previous ten years. According to large-scale studies by Ahrefs, BrightEdge, and AWR, the emergence of AI Overviews has led to a systemic decline in clicks even when high rankings are maintained:
– The CTR of the first organic result dropped by an average of 34.5% (Ahrefs data, sample of 300,000 queries).
– In some niches, the decline reaches 30–60%, especially for informational queries.
– According to BrightEdge, despite a 49% increase in impressions, clicks continue to decrease.
– AWR records a drop in CTR within the top 4 positions for keywords with informational intent (“what,” “how,” “where”), despite stable rankings.
The overall conclusion is clear: a top ranking no longer guarantees clicks. Even websites that consistently hold first positions are now losing a significant share of traffic — and this is directly связанo with how Google displays AI Overviews and redistributes user attention within the SERP.
This effect is especially visible in Google Search Console: impressions are growing while clicks are falling. On charts, it looks like a classic divergence of curves — a so-called “opening jaws” effect — which continues to widen as the reach of AI Overviews expands.
What Are AI Overviews and Why Do They Reduce Clicks?
AI Overviews are automatically generated answers that Google displays at the top of the search results. They gather key information from multiple sources and form a concise, coherent, ready-to-use answer directly on the search results page.
This feature changes the very logic of user behavior: previously, visiting a website was a necessary step to obtain complete information, but now Google provides enough information “on the spot.”
Research confirms that:
- 99.2% of queries for which an AI Overview is triggered are informational (Ahrefs data).
- AI Overviews are placed above the first organic result, occupying most of the “above-the-fold” space.
- For most users, the content received in the AI Overview is sufficient to avoid clicking further.
As a result, a systemic effect emerges:
- Impressions increase — because Google records the result appearance even if the user does not scroll past the AI Overview.
- Clicks decrease — because some users get the answer before they even see the website link.
- CTR breaks down, especially in the informational intent segment.
This leads to divergence in Google Search Console graphs: more impressions are shown, but fewer clicks are recorded.
Sites that rely heavily on informational queries or mixed semantic clusters suffer the most, where the informational layer directly impacts the domain’s overall CTR. This is exactly where AI Overviews create the strongest pressure, causing click declines even when rankings remain unchanged.
Google Search Console Study
We used GSC data on:
- clicks,
- impressions,
- CTR,
- average position,
- query types,
- devices (desktop / mobile),
- pages and content clusters.
At the moment, GSC is the only source that allows us to see the real impact of AI Overviews rather than relying on modeled estimates.
Project Sample
The study included websites from different verticals:
- content projects,
- eCommerce stores,
- websites with mixed semantics (informational + commercial queries),
- service websites.
All data in the report is anonymized, but the sample provides a representative view of the current market situation.
We placed special emphasis on projects with mixed semantics, as they are the most vulnerable to AI Overviews. This is confirmed by both our own observations and global studies.
Data Segmentation
To accurately understand which areas are affected by AIO, we divided queries into three types:
1. Informational — queries with the intent to gain knowledge. This is the primary zone of AI Overviews activity.
2. Mixed intent — queries that contain an informational component but can lead to a commercial action. In practice, this is the most problematic zone, and this is where the strongest gap between impressions and clicks is observed.
| Category | Query Example | Why it’s mixed intent | How the gap appears (AIO → GSC) |
| Tech | “which smartphone to choose in 2025” | user searches for information → but may proceed to purchase | impressions ↑, clicks ↓, CTR drops due to AIO lists |
| Home | “how to choose a robot vacuum” | information + further model selection | AIO provides the answer → organic results are pushed down |
| Services | “how much does teeth cleaning cost” | informational query → potential booking | AIO often answers directly in SERP |
| Healthcare | “what tests are needed before surgery” | information first → then clinic search | AIO covers the info part, clicks drop |
| Beauty | “how to choose foundation” | education → brand selection | AIO forms advice, users don’t click further |
| Finance | “how to choose a bank card” | information → product comparison | AIO generates lists, CTR declines |
| Automotive | “best engine oil” | reference → oil purchase | AIO suggests brands, organic ranking drops lower |
| Travel | “where is the best place to travel in October” | information → booking intent | AIO provides curated picks → fewer clicks |
3. Commercial. Queries related to searching for a product, service, price, or brand. The impact of AI Overviews on them is minimal, but an indirect CTR decline is still observed in some markets.
Metrics Compared
We analyzed:
Comparison Method
For each query/cluster, we analyzed:
- Whether impressions increased after the introduction of AIO.
- Whether CTR decreased while the position remained the same or improved.
- Whether clicks changed without any change in visibility (the key AIO trigger).
- How many informational queries within the cluster began to show a stable zero-click pattern.
This approach makes it possible to detect the impact of AIO even in cases where Google does not directly record AIO impressions.
Why do we rely specifically on GSC?
Because GSC records:
- impressions even if the user did not actually see the AIO block,
- clicks only when a real visit occurs,
- CTR decline even when rankings remain unchanged.
This makes GSC the ideal tool for detecting the “diverging curves effect”:
impressions grow → clicks fall → CTR breaks down.
Key Findings of the Study
An analysis of Google Search Console data across different types of projects showed that the impact of AI Overviews on click-through rates is far stronger and more systemic than previously assumed. Even when rankings are maintained or improved, websites are losing a significant share of clicks – primarily within informational and mixed-intent queries.
Below are the key trends confirmed by the data.
CTR Declines Even with Stable Rankings
Across most of the analyzed informational queries, we observed the same pattern:
- rankings remain stable (±0.1),
- impressions increase,
- clicks decrease,
- CTR declines.
This effect appears even for queries where a site holds the #1 position—something that previously was considered a guaranteed source of traffic.
On Informational Queries, CTR Drops by 30–60%
This type of query has become the primary area where AI Overviews capture user attention.
- On average, CTR decreases by 34–45%.
- In some niches, the decline reaches up to 60%.
- The share of zero-click interactions increases.
Informational answers in AI Overviews satisfy user intent before they even see organic links.
On Mixed-Semantics Projects, the Decline in Clicks Is the Strongest
This is the key insight of our study.
Projects that contain both informational and commercial queries show a stronger overall drop in clicks compared to purely informational websites.
The reason is straightforward:
- There is a sharp CTR decline on informational queries.
- These queries make up a significant share of total visibility.
- As impressions grow and clicks fall, the domain’s overall CTR decreases.
- Google’s algorithms begin to “dilute” traffic with micro-impressions from informational queries, which further lowers the average CTR.
- This, in turn, reduces the visibility of even commercial URLs in some niches.
Conclusion:
Mixed semantics create a multiplicative CTR decline effect that is almost absent in purely commercial projects.
On Commercial Queries, the Impact of AIO Is Minimal but Indirect
The direct impact on transactional intent is still weak:
- a low share of AIO in the commercial segment,
- a minimal CTR decline (±3–7%).
However, an indirect impact is present:
– the overall domain CTR decreases due to informational queries;
– the share of impressions for low-CTR pages increases;
– some product categories may lose visibility in a high informational background.
AIO Rollout Peaks in the U.S. Clearly Coincide with Sharp CTR Drops
Across all projects, we observed the same “dips”:
- May 2024 — the first wave of AIO rollout;
- July/August — expansion of coverage;
- October/December — stable, mass presence of AIO in search results.
Each wave was accompanied by:
- an increase in impressions in GSC,
- a decline in CTR,
- a drop in clicks.
This is key evidence of a direct cause-and-effect relationship.
Query Types and the Varying Impact of AI Overviews
To clearly illustrate the differences, we divided all queries into three key groups and compared the pattern of changes for each of them.
| Query Type | AIO Appearance Frequency | CTR Change | Clicks Change | Key Characteristics | Who Is Most Affected |
| Informational | Very high (up to 99% of cases, according to Ahrefs) | –30% … –60% | –20% … –45% | Active zero-click behavior, AIO answer fully satisfies the user | Content websites, media, blogs |
| Mixed intent | Medium, unstable | –20% … –50% | –10% … –40% | Impressions increase while clicks drop, strong curve divergence in GSC | E-commerce with blogs, service websites, marketplaces |
| Commercial | Low | –3% … –7% | –1% … –5% | Indirect impact through overall domain CTR | Online stores, B2B, brands |
From the table, we can see that AI Overviews do not affect all queries equally: informational queries suffer the most, mixed intent is affected critically, while the commercial segment is impacted minimally.
Differences in AIO Impact by Device
AI Overviews affect users differently depending on the device. Screen limitations, SERP layout, and behavioral patterns create two distinct CTR-decline scenarios. Below are the exact differences with examples.
Desktop: the user sees AIO and consciously skips organic results
On desktop, the AI Overviews block occupies the top part of the page but does not fully cover it — the user can clearly see organic results below. However, CTR still drops.
What happens:
- AIO provides a complete, in-depth answer.
- More organic results are visible compared to mobile, but the motivation to click decreases.
- The user feels they have already received the necessary information.
Example (typical case from GSC):
The reason: the user can see organic results, but AIO captures attention and fully satisfies the search intent.
Mobile devices: AIO completely pushes organic results below the first screen
On mobile screens, AI Overviews occupy almost 100% of the “above-the-fold” area. Organic links fall outside the visible area without scrolling.
What happens:
- The user sees only the AIO block, with no indication of organic results.
- To reach the search results, the user needs to scroll 1–2 times.
- The majority of users do not scroll down at all.
Example (typical from GSC):
Reason: organic results are physically inaccessible without user action, and most users do not scroll.
| Metric | Desktop | Mobile |
| Organic visibility | Partial | Almost absent on the first screen |
| CTR decline | –15% … –35% | –30% … –60% |
| User behavior | “Skips” organic results | Does not see organic results |
| Milliseconds to first interaction | Lower | Significantly higher |
| Zero-click growth | Moderate | Noticeable, rapid |
Based on the table data, it is clear that mobile users interact with organic results much less frequently, which leads to a stronger drop in CTR and faster growth of zero-click behavior compared to desktop.
How AI Overviews Are Changing the Structure of Search Results
AI Overviews are reshaping not only user behavior but also the very architecture of the search results page. At the interface level, Google is shifting visual and functional focus in a way that makes traditional organic results secondary. As a result, even the top ranking no longer guarantees clicks.
AIO captures the user’s focal point
Previously, the entry point to the SERP was the first organic snippet — it occupied the top position and initiated the user’s interaction with search results.
With the introduction of AI Overviews:
- AIO becomes the new “zero position,”
- attention shifts from organic listings to the generated answer,
- the user receives a ready-made response before any contact with traditional search results.
Typical example:
Query: “how to remove a stain from fabric”
— AIO displays a complete step-by-step solution compiled from multiple websites.
— The site in position #1 loses 30–50% of its CTR.
The user already has the solution — there is no longer a need to click.
Organic links are physically pushed downward
AI Overviews often occupy 600–1200 pixels in height (depending on the type of answer), which is enough to push organic results far below the first screen.
Example:
After AIO appears, the first organic result:
- on desktop shifts down by ~400–600 px,
- on mobile devices by 1–2 full screens.
Result: organic listings are not visible without active user interaction.
Change in interaction depth
We recorded an increase in the share of clicks from positions:
- 4–8,
- and in some cases even 9–12.
This is a paradoxical situation: rankings remain high, but clicks “flow” downward. The reason is simple: if a user decides to scroll, they often scroll deeper. In some niches, AIO visually pulls attention toward the middle of the SERP.
Example (GSC observation):
- Position 1: CTR dropped from 11% to 5%.
- Position 6: CTR increased from 0.7% to 1.1%.
However, the total number of clicks is still lower because overall traffic volume decreases.
Increase in the share of zero-click and reduced interaction depth
AIO answers queries directly. This is especially true for question-based and factual queries.
Result:
- the user gets the answer,
- does not open links,
- does not interact with the SERP,
- and ends the search.
This is how zero-click behavior patterns are formed — and they are becoming more and more common.
Introduction of additional SERP elements competing for user attention
With the introduction of AI Overviews, Google has strengthened additional blocks:
– clarifying questions,
– recommendation lists,
– visual cards,
– topical carousels.
Organic results now compete not only with AI Overviews, but also with a dozen elements that appear above them.
Why the First Organic Position no Longer Guarantees Clicks
A position is just a line in the ranking. But users do not interact with lines — they interact with the visual structure of the SERP.
If the blocks above organic results are:
- higher,
- brighter,
- more informative,
- and occupy the entire first screen,
then the actual visibility of position #1 is not equal to its logical position #1.
That is why CTR drops even when rankings remain unchanged.
Forecast for the Development of AI Overviews
AI Overviews are not an experiment — they are a strategic direction in the evolution of search. All signals from Google and other major players indicate that the “answer-first, not a list-of-links” format will continue to expand. It is important to realistically assess where this is heading — without panic, but also without illusions.
Google’s Transition to “AI Mode”
Google is already testing a more radical interface, conventionally referred to as “AI Mode”:
- instead of the classic search results page, users are offered a conversational format;
- the primary interface becomes an AI-driven interaction;
- links and organic results are integrated as a supporting layer beneath the generated answer.
If today AI Overviews appear as a block above the results, then “AI Mode” turns AI into the central search interface, with the list of links becoming a secondary tool.
What this means for SEO:
– traffic will increasingly depend on how AI selects and cites sources;
– the traditional logic of “position → CTR” will continue to erode;
– a new layer of optimization will emerge — “optimization for AI-generated answers.”
Competition with OpenAI, Perplexity, and Other AI Systems
Google is not the only player transforming search into a conversational interface:
- OpenAI is developing ChatGPT as an entry point for information search.
- Perplexity positions itself as “an answer instead of search.”
- Other models are learning to capture queries directly, bypassing the classic search results page.
All of these systems follow the same model:
- the user receives a ready-made answer,
- source links are secondary and often not the main focus of interaction,
- traffic is distributed not through the traditional SERP model, but via citation mechanisms, recommendations, and in-answer links.
For websites, this creates a new challenge: it is no longer enough to think only about visibility in Google — it is also necessary to think about how content is used and cited inside third-party AI interfaces.
What Will Happen to Organic Traffic Over the Next 12–18 Months?
With a high degree of probability, the following trends can be expected:
1. Expansion of AI Overviews coverage for informational queries. The AIO zone will continue to grow, including more complex, multi-component queries.
2. Stronger impact of AIO on mixed-intent semantics. The more informational queries a project contains, the more pronounced the “diverging curves” effect in GSC will be.
3. Stabilization or slight decrease in AIO impact on purely commercial queries. Here, classic ranking signals and conversion usability will remain the key factors.
4. Further decline in CTR for top-1…top-3 positions on informational queries. Rankings will remain important, but no longer a guaranteed source of traffic.
5. Growing importance of brand and trust. Users will be more likely to click on brands they already know, even within AIO answers and source carousels.
The formula is changing:
Not just “ranking → clicks,” but “ranking + SERP format + role in AIO → clicks.”
The Threat of the Internet Turning into a “Closed Answer Ecosystem”
If the “AI-driven search” model becomes dominant, several long-term shifts will occur:
- Direct contact between websites and users will weaken. More and more queries will be fully resolved inside AI interfaces — without any site visits.
- Platforms will become the “gatekeepers” of information. They will decide which data to show, what to quote, and how user attention is distributed.
- Content businesses risk becoming data suppliers for AI models. Their materials will be used for training and answer generation, while direct traffic and monetization decline.
However, this is not a reason to write off organic search entirely. It is rather a signal that the old strategy of “publishing lots of articles and collecting traffic” no longer works in its previous form.
How to Adapt to the New Scenario Without Panic
Instead of воспринимать AI Overviews and AI Mode as a catastrophe, it makes sense to view them as a new baseline reality:
– Shift the focus from the number of pages to their value. Content that delivers unique experience, depth, or practical tools is much harder to replace with a short AIO answer.
– Strengthen commercial and product-driven clusters. Wherever users need not only an answer but also an action (buy, compare, book), the role of the website remains critical.
– Build brand and awareness. In an environment where the interface is controlled by the platform, the brand name itself becomes an independent click factor.
– Work more deeply with GSC analytics. Understanding exactly how AIO affects specific queries, pages, and clusters allows you not just to react, but to consciously restructure your strategy.
AI Overviews are already visibly changing the logic of search traffic: CTR declines even with stable rankings, impressions grow, and a characteristic gap between curves appears more and more often in GSC. Informational and mixed-intent projects suffer the most — where AIO captures user attention and satisfies the query directly in the SERP.
This is not a temporary effect, but a new search model. To avoid losing traffic, it is critical to look deeper than positional reports: analyze intent, devices, SERP structure, and real GSC data.
If you see clicks decreasing while impressions are growing, the RegisTeam team can help identify the cause and adapt your SEO strategy to the era of AI Overviews.
Contact us for an audit of your project and personalized recommendations.
